Lei06

Important news from last night to this morning (May 17 - May 18) Bitcoin fell below $79,000, with $82,000 forming a strong selling pressure zone; short-term holders are exiting on rallies. Large-scale capital outflows from the fixed income market may be a medium-term positive for BTC, on-chain signals show tightening supply, and trading enthusiasm is already lower than the previous bear market bottom.

The crypto market broadly declined, with BTC falling below $77,000, only the DeFi and SocialFi sectors remained relatively strong On May 18, the crypto market generally fell, with Bitcoin (BTC) down 1.19%, dropping below $77,000; Ethereum (ETH) down 2.71%, falling below $2,200. Only the DeFi and SocialFi sectors remained relatively resilient, rising 1.18% and 2.40% respectively in 24 hours. Within the DeFi sector, Block Street (BSB) rose 42.25%, Hyperliquid (HYPE) increased 10.51%, and within the SocialFi sector, Toncoin (TON) rose 4.12%.

Current market trading enthusiasm is much lower than the bear market bottom in December 2022 The current market trading enthusiasm is much lower than the last bear market bottom (December 2022), even though the prices of several major mainstream coins are still far above their prices at that time. BTC: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume of BTC/USDT on Binance was around $2 billion, now it is only about $500 million. The current price is 4.5 times the last bottom. The last correction was -75%, this time from the peak to now it is -38%. ETH: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume of ETH/USDT was around $400 million, now it is only about $200 million. The current price is 1.7 times the last bottom. The last correction was -75%, this time from the peak to now it is -54%. BNB: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume of BNB/USDT was around $50 million, now it is roughly the same level. The current price is 2.7 times the last bottom. The last correction was -65%, this time from the peak to now it is -50%. $BTC $ETH

[Analysis: Bitcoin is testing a key support level, Ethereum has triggered a bearish signal] On May 18, 10x Research released a report stating that since the CPI data was published on May 13, Bitcoin ETF holders have sold over $1 billion, with market sentiment plummeting from 87% to 45%, and bond yields continuing to rise (the 30-year yield rose to 5.12%). Inflation has become a renewed focus, and cryptocurrencies are feeling the pressure. The report points out that Bitcoin is testing the 30-day moving average, and confirming a break below it would indicate worsening momentum. Key levels to watch are $79,125 (short-term bull-bear dividing line) and $76,922 (major support level). Ethereum has triggered a bearish signal. 10x Research states that the current pattern is a "two steps forward, one step back" scenario, but the cycle bottom has appeared.

【$526 million liquidated across the entire network in the past 1 hour, with ETH liquidations reaching $239 million】 In the past 1 hour, $526 million was liquidated across the entire network, including $510 million in long position liquidations and $16.33 million in short position liquidations. Additionally, ETH liquidations amounted to $239 million, and BTC liquidations reached $151 million.

[Huang Licheng's ETH Long Position Quickly Reopened After Another Liquidation, Cumulative Losses Exceed $32.4 Million] On May 18, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, after a sudden market drop, Huang Licheng's 25x ETH long position was completely liquidated again. He then quickly reopened a new 25x ETH long position. His cumulative losses have exceeded $32.4 million.

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Up 10%. Then a large group rushed in to short, thinking it had peaked. I opened a long position. HYPE current price $46.07, UTC today +10.15%. 24h high $47.25, 24h low $41.34. Now look at the long ratio over the past 10 hours: 57.44% → 57.44% → 56.75% → 56.75% → 56.16% → 56.16% → 55.56% → 55.44% → 55.44% → 52.59% (latest) 10 hours ago: 57.44% longs. Now: 52.59% longs. Dropped nearly 5 percentage points. HYPE keeps rising, but the long ratio keeps falling — the new positions coming in are mostly shorts. Plainly put: it rose 10%, this group said "too high, it will fall," and rushed in to short. Now look at the OI, 10-hour trend: $209 million → $212 million → $218 million → $219 million → $223 million → $242 million → $254 million → $252 million → $256 million → $255 million (latest) In 10 hours, OI rose from $209 million to $255 million, up $45.65 million, +21.8%. The two hours from 02:00-03:00 UTC were the strongest, OI surged $32 million in those two hours — that was when this batch of new shorts massively entered. Then the funding rate: -0.000232, negative funding rate. Negative funding means: shorts are paying longs. These shorts are paying holding costs every hour, letting longs get paid for free. Current situation: HYPE rose 10% today, but shorts increased from 42.56% to 47.41%, OI hit a 10-hour high, and shorts are paying funding to support longs. These shorts’ cost is around $43-$46, their stop loss is just above $47.25 — today's high. Once $47.25 breaks, these shorts will start concentrated stop losses, and the short positions within the $255 million OI will start bleeding — that’s the real acceleration phase. Entry: $46.07 Stop loss: $41.00 (break below today's low structure) Target 1: $50.00 Target 2: $55.00+ Shorts 47.41%, OI +21.8% in 10 hours, negative funding with shorts supporting longs — opened long, waiting for their stop loss. $HYPE

The brakes were applied just in time, not letting a life be lost 😱

Are you playing bumper cars?