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The long-awaited correction for the Bill token has finally arrived. π¨
The key question is whether this token can be used as a short-hedging vehicle. The short position is not declining in tandem with the price drop. The funding rate remains stable without significant deviation. This indicates that when short orders are placed, there are still active counterparties in the market. Who are they? π§
The buy-sell ratio has surged sharply, representing a spike in the number of buyers. This suggests that retail investor participation on the buy side has increased significantly. π
The conclusion is clear. The market maker seized the opportunity at the new peak yesterday at 16:00 to execute a heavy short, then began closing their long positions. After that, they stepped back. Currently, the market lacks market maker support. The current decline is purely a battle among retail investors. The short side holds large capital but few participants, while the buy side has small capital but a large crowd. βοΈ
The market maker's primary mission is essentially complete. They leveraged a unique chip supply-demand dynamic, using minimal capital at near-zero cost to drive the price up nearly 10x. Now, they have finally begun to cash out. π―
Going forward, expect a high-level consolidation zone. Retail investors will continue to fight among themselves, gradually closing out remaining long positions at the bottom. The only uncertainty is what the recovered capital will be used for. If the market maker continues to play before the unlock date, hedging within this zone remains risky. If this manipulation round is over and they are distributing profits, then hedging becomes safer. π€·ββοΈ
This means that before the unlock date of October 31st, whether Bill will slowly decline or see a second wave of shorting depends entirely on the market maker. They have the capital and the choice. We, who want to hedge, must hold positions for 6 months. We have no choice. This is a completely asymmetric ...
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